The Looming Threat of Post-Quantum Cryptography
Updated: Mar 10, 2025
David Firnhaber holds a PhD in Technology Innovation Management for his publication in the field of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) regarding the future of quantum decryption. He is currently a professor at Ivy Tech Community College and is pursuing a second PhD in Cybersecurity GRC while focusing his research on human trafficking in cyberspace.
In the ever-evolving domain of cryptography, nothing remains static for long. Quantum computing is emerging as the most significant paradigm shift to date, posing a daunting challenge to our secure communications: the potential decryption of RSA-2048 encryption.
Introducing RSA-2048 and NIST standards
RSA-2048 has long been a stalwart in the encryption world, safeguarding sensitive data through the mathematical challenge of factoring large semi-prime numbers, an arduous task for classical computers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) established RSA-2048 as the backbone of public-key cryptography, ensuring the security of Internet communications, financial transactions, and confidential government data. However, the ascendance of quantum computing mandates a rapid evolution toward quantum-safe encryption methods.
Understanding the quantum threat
Why is this significant? Conventional computers, our current security bulwarks, rely heavily on RSA-2048 for encryption due to the complexity of prime factorization. Yet, quantum computers, equipped with revolutionary qubits and leveraging advanced algorithms like Shor's, could dismantle these methods. Once we achieve the milestone of millions of qubits working in unison, RSA-2048 may no longer be a viable defense.
The quantum race: Beyond phoenix
Recent advancements underscore the breakneck pace of this field. In recent years, IBM has created a rapid succession of quantum processors, from the 433-qubit Osprey in 2022 to the 1,121-qubit Condor chip in 2023. Atom Computing's Phoenix processor, boasting 1,225 qubits, was also unveiled in 2023, and by the end of this year, industry projections anticipate the emergence of systems surpassing 4,000 qubits, signaling a pivotal shift from theoretical concepts to practical applications.
The scalability conundrum
Scaling Phoenix or other processors to achieve millions of qubits necessitates confronting real-world challenges, managing error rates, ensuring coherence times, and maintaining qubit connectivity. Despite these obstacles, the relentless pursuit of quantum advancements requires sustained research and innovation. IBM Quantum's Development Roadmap illustrates a rigorous approach to scalability, emphasizing the importance of both quality and quantity of qubits. The transition to quantum-centric supercomputing reflects a shift towards integrating quantum and classical resources to maximize computational efficiency.
Atom Computing's Phoenix processor demonstrates a unique capability to scale, leveraging optically trapped neutral atoms to create highly scalable qubit arrays. These neutral atoms, held closely together with laser light, allow the system to expand from thousands to potentially millions of qubits. This technology focuses on maintaining high qubit fidelity and long coherence times, which are crucial for practical quantum computing applications.
Projections indicate a significant leap in qubit counts, with industry expectations set for systems to surpass 4,000 qubits by this year, 2025, marking a critical step towards practical quantum applications.
The DNDL technique: A ticking time bomb
Amplifying the urgency of this threat is the Download Now Decrypt Later (DNDL) technique, a strategy increasingly adopted by cyber adversaries. This method involves stockpiling encrypted data today with the expectation of decrypting it when quantum computers reach sufficient power. Given the gradual transition to quantum-safe encryption, sensitive data encrypted with RSA-2048 remains at risk. If decrypted in the future, this intelligence, though aged, could prove invaluable to adversaries, providing crucial insights for years to come. Additionally, the fallout from such breaches could ripple across various industries, jeopardizing trade secrets, undermining competitive edges, and exposing critical business strategies.
A glimpse into the future of cryptography
As we edge closer to the quantum era, NIST anticipates a significant pivot from RSA-2048 to quantum-resistant encryption methods. The urgency for cryptographic agility has never been more profound. Our ability to protect data enduringly hails in the swift adoption of new standards, ensuring the fortification of our digital defenses against the looming quantum threat.
Have questions or insights to share about Post-Quantum Cryptography? I invite you to reach out to me, David K. Firnhaber, PhD. Together, we can navigate the quantum revolution and reinforce our collective cybersecurity.
Read more from David K Firnhaber
David K Firnhaber, Doctor of Philosophy in Cybersecurity
David Firnhaber is a proven expert in post-quantum cryptography with a rich background in cybersecurity. Leveraging his leadership and scholastic excellence, he consistently delivers his continued doctoral-level research and is positioned to share his knowledge with many students. Outside of work, David Firnhaber enjoys songwriting, outdoors, painting, and documentaries, adding a unique perspective to his writing.
