The Quiet Quantum Threat That Is Already Unfolding
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
David Firnhaber holds a PhD in Technology Innovation Management for his publication in the field of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) regarding the future of quantum decryption. He is currently a professor at Ivy Tech Community College and is pursuing a second PhD in Cybersecurity GRC while focusing his research on human trafficking in cyberspace.
Adversaries are not waiting for a single Q-Day, they are running a patient decryption campaign now. The operational play is simple, harvest ciphertext today, exploit advances in quantum computation later. Recent work on resource accounting for Shor-style attacks shows the headline qubit counts are misleading. Gate depth and error correction dominate the true cost of breaking RSA-2048. Emerging computation models shift work into state preparation and measurement. Measurement-based, continuous-variable, and teleportation/fusion techniques could materially change resource accounting and, if industrialized, lower the effective qubit budget for large factorization runs. Treat this as an attack vector, adversaries will exploit any reduction in resource cost to accelerate decryption timelines.
Attack model
The adversary’s objective is retrospective plaintext recovery. The campaign has three phases: collection, cold storage, and deferred decryption. Collection is cheap and scalable, cold storage is effectively free at scale, deferred decryption is the only remaining barrier. That barrier is a function of two engineering variables, the number of logical qubits required and the gate budget or total non-Clifford operations and circuit depth needed to run Shor-class circuits at target key sizes. Public reporting of physical qubits obscures both variables, creating a false sense of safety. Many high-value records have confidentiality lifetimes measured in decades. An attacker who archives encrypted backups today converts future quantum progress into a guaranteed intelligence windfall. The harvest-now, decrypt-later model is already a documented threat posture and is operationally attractive because it minimizes near-term risk while maximizing long-term payoff.
Physical versus logical qubits
Physical qubits are noisy, logical qubits are error-corrected constructs that matter for cryptanalysis. Error correction multiplies physical resources by orders of magnitude, and gate counts balloon when you account for distillation of non-Clifford resources. A 4,000-qubit headline does not imply the ability to run Shor at RSA-2048 scale without clarifying logical-qubit yield and gate overhead. Recent simulation work highlights that gate budgets remain the dominant unknown in resource estimates. [1]
Gates without qubits and why it matters
Newer computation paradigms, including Measurement-Based Quantum Computing (MBQC), Continuous-Variable (CV) encodings, and teleportation/fusion networks, move computational weight from long coherent circuits to large, entangled resource states and measurement sequences. In principle, these approaches can reduce the number of simultaneously coherent physical qubits required for deep logical operations by trading parallel coherence for offline state preparation and high-throughput measurements. If these techniques scale with low loss and practical error correction, the effective physical to logical multiplier for Shor-style runs could shrink dramatically, lowering the qubit threshold for a successful decryption attack. [1]
Practical caveats
These models do not eliminate resource costs, they reallocate them. Photonic CV cluster states, magic-state teleportation, and fusion-based gates demand massive, high-fidelity state factories, low-loss interconnects, and new error-correction primitives. To convert theoretical savings into operational capability, adversaries or vendors must demonstrate reproducible, error-corrected logical operations using these primitives at scale. Until independent, end-to-end demonstrations exist, claims of “gates without qubits” remain a credible but unproven acceleration vector. [1]
Timeline implications: How to read milestones
Treat vendor qubit milestones as probability inputs, not binary triggers. A thousand-qubit device that lacks scalable error correction does not equal cryptanalytic capability. Conversely, a modest-sized system that demonstrates low-overhead teleportation or MBQC primitives with validated error models could be a step change. IBM’s Condor and similar announcements compress uncertainty by showing scale progress, but they do not by themselves prove the ability to run Shor at cryptographic scale. Watch out for demonstrations that combine scale with error-corrected logical operations.
Scenario framing
Conservative scenario: Cryptanalytic capability follows the traditional path of logical qubits and massive gate budgets, keeping Q-Day beyond a decade absent breakthrough. Accelerated scenario: Validated low-overhead gate paradigms reduce the effective qubit requirement, moving plausible decryption capability years earlier. The accelerated scenario is lower probability today, but high impact if realized, it is the one adversaries will exploit by stockpiling ciphertext. [1]
Conclusion
The decryption attack is simple and patient, collect, store, wait, and exploit. The qubit gap remains the central technical uncertainty, but emerging gate paradigms that shift work into state preparation and measurement could materially reduce the effective resource cost of large Shor runs only if they are industrialized with robust error correction. Security teams must stop treating qubit headlines as the sole signal and instead monitor engineering milestones that prove scalable logical operations or low-overhead gate models. Prioritize long-lived secrets, demand vendor transparency, and build crypto agility now because adversaries are already banking on the future payoff.
Read more from David K Firnhaber
David K Firnhaber, Doctor of Philosophy in Cybersecurity
David Firnhaber is a proven expert in post-quantum cryptography with a rich background in cybersecurity. Leveraging his leadership and scholastic excellence, he consistently delivers his continued doctoral-level research and is positioned to share his knowledge with many students. Outside of work, David Firnhaber enjoys songwriting, the outdoors, painting, and documentaries, adding a unique perspective to his writing.
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Author David K. Firnhaber, PhD. is available to help translate these technical indicators into procurement language, monitoring checklists, and prioritized migration plans
