Pakistan, the Powder Keg of Rare Earths and How a Failing State Could Drag Superpowers Into Chaos
- Aug 22, 2025
- 3 min read
Written by Panos Hadjinicolaou, Entrepreneur
My path has been shaped by curiosity and entrepreneurial courage. I see opportunities where others see only challenges. With over 30 years of international experience, I am your partner for real transformation.
When oil defined the 20th century, wars followed pipelines. In the 21st century, the battlefield has shifted to rare earths, and Pakistan sits on the fault line.
The world is entering a new era of resource wars. The Persian Gulf conflict of 1990 was waged over oil. Today, the battleground is rare earths, the metals without which the digital economy, advanced weaponry, and the energy transition would grind to a halt. And the stage is no longer Kuwait, but Pakistan: a fragile, debt-strangled state perched on vast reserves that global powers are already fighting to control.
Beijing’s first move
China has moved fastest. Through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the expansion of Gwadar Port, Beijing has built not just roads, railways, and pipelines, but geopolitical leverage. Add in geological surveys pointing to immense deposits in Balochistan and the Peshawar Alkaline Province, and Pakistan becomes more than a partner. It becomes a pressure point, a lever China can use to lock the West into deeper dependence.
Washington’s invisible hand
The United States counters differently. Instead of ports, it uses debt, instead of highways, financial institutions. Through the IMF, military concessions, and strategic labeling of insurgent groups, Washington secures its own grip. Under Trump, the deal was explicit: “stability” for Islamabad in exchange for access to minerals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It’s the same pattern we saw in the Gulf: sovereignty as the public narrative, resource security as the hidden agenda.
A nation breaking apart
Caught between superpowers, Pakistan itself is eroding. Debt, corruption, separatist insurgencies, and political paralysis leave it ever weaker. For decades, it served as a launchpad for U.S. wars in Afghanistan, China’s bridge to the Indian Ocean, and an entry point for Russian and Iranian ambitions. Today, it’s a chessboard where every corridor and pipeline is contested ground. Russia eyes mineral-for-arms deals via Afghanistan. Iran leverages transit routes depending on shifting alliances. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s citizens watch their future being sold off piece by piece.
Europe’s strategic trap
For Europe, the scenario is a nightmare déjà vu. The war in Ukraine exposed how vulnerable the continent’s dependence on Russian energy had become. Now, as NATO rearms, the Green Deal accelerates, and digital demand soars, rare earths are the new Achilles’ heel. China already controls 90% of refining capacity. Should it lock in Pakistan’s reserves as well, Europe risks repeating the same strategic mistake too late to react, too dependent to resist.
India: Reluctant gatekeeper
For India, Pakistan’s unraveling is no cause for celebration. Instability spills across borders in the form of terrorism, cyberattacks, and propaganda. Yet India holds a decisive card: without safe sea routes through the Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s minerals remain trapped inland. Karachi may be functional, but the Indian Navy dominates the sea lanes. That makes New Delhi an unwitting gatekeeper; no superpower can tap Pakistan’s resources without at least quiet Indian acquiescence.
The hybrid war driving chaos in the state
This won’t be Desert Storm 2.0. The coming clash will be hybrid: fought through loans, sanctions, infrastructure projects, propaganda, and cyber operations. The rhetoric will be about sovereignty. The reality will be about supply chains. Pakistan, meanwhile, risks fracturing further. Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa already drift toward separatism, while elites skim profits and ordinary citizens sink into poverty.
No illusions
The world should not fool itself: the fuse has already been lit. Pakistan is no longer a sovereign actor; it is the powder keg of rare earths. China, the U.S., Russia, Iran, NATO, and the EU are pulling it apart. India stands on the front line. The question is not if this conflict will escalate, but when. And anyone who believes it can be contained within Pakistan is dangerously mistaken. Its shockwaves will reverberate far beyond South and Central Asia, straight into the supply networks of Western democracies.
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Panos Hadjinicolaou, Entrepreneur
From Elite Officer to Entrepreneur
Military Career:
As an officer in an elite unit, I developed top-level leadership skills. Strategy and discipline continue to shape my actions to this day.
Professional Sports:
My athletic career ignited my passion for innovation. I learned how to perform at the highest level—even under pressure.
International Entrepreneur:
From Europe to Asia, I have strategically developed businesses, built production facilities, and optimized supply chains.
