Over-Confident Leaders – Illusionary Superiority & The Dunning-Kruger Effect
- Aug 23, 2023
- 5 min read
Written by: Lars Friedrich, Executive Contributor
Executive Contributors at Brainz Magazine are handpicked and invited to contribute because of their knowledge and valuable insight within their area of expertise.
These days, "Illusionary Superiority" and the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" are sadly very common in corporate and entrepreneurial environments, often displayed as over-confidence and overestimating existing personal leadership abilities with all the negative consequences.
In a famous and often-stated study from Swedish psychologist Ola Svenson back in 1981, "Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?", ¹ 88% of American drivers considered themselves above average at driving - which, obviously, is impossible.
And this applies to more than driving!
Because generally, people tend to overestimate their abilities in all areas of their personal & professional life.
From athleticism, experience, knowledge & expertise, and leadership to skills like honesty, integrity, creativity, work ethic & emotional intelligence and so on, known as the "Better-Than-Average Effect".
Illusionary superiority
In the field of social psychology, the "Better-Than-Average Effect" is also known as "Illusory Superiority", a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate their positive qualities & abilities and underestimate their negative ones relative to others.
And it has been proven that especially people in positions of leadership & authority are more prone to develop illusionary superiority because it's so easy to fall into the trap of overestimating one's abilities.
First-hand experience
One of the most memorable examples of this displayed overconfidence I experienced happened at the end of my active military career as the responsible senior officer of the Directing Staff of the "Selection" for a Tier 1 Special Forces military unit.
All participants allowed to enter "Selection" were already professional soldiers & leaders and 100% confident that they would never quit and, of course, pass!
This perception was mainly based on their already attained practices, having already been in leadership positions in the military and even having heard the rumour that the failure rate of the selection is about 90%.
In fact, it was and still is between 99.7 & 99.8%!
And interestingly, over 2/3 of those who started would voluntarily "Drop On Request" (DOR) during the following weeks of enduring & demanding ongoing screening, where their physical, emotional, mental & cognitive leadership skills were constantly put to the "test".
"I would never do something like that!" said almost everyone who eventually did DOR!
That was the most memorable experience with the "Illusionary Superiority" of designated leaders who failed to demonstrate & display their leadership skills in practice and not in theory during my active time in the military.
And sadly, during the following last 22 years in professional corporate & entrepreneurial environments, I have witnessed many more of those examples of overconfident leaders, often combined with another cognitive bias.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
More recently conducted research, "Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments." known as the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, ² has found that those with the least skill or knowledge in a field are often the most likely to overestimate their abilities and tend to shout them out loud.
And the inverse is also true!
Those with the most knowledge, who best understand the depths of their field and how much they still don't know, are more likely to underestimate their abilities compared to others.
Metacognition
And this raises a question when it comes to self-assessment and self-assessment and self-awareness: "How do you know what you think you know?"
It is known as metacognition, which derives from the Greek root word "meta" (beyond) and the Latin "cognoscere" (getting to know) and refers to a learner's ability to reflect on their thought process and choose an effective strategy, so clearly imperative for every leader!
"𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐞 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐥𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠." – Socrates
For example...
Maybe people are great drivers! But have they ever driven professionally or objectively tested that skill?
Or maybe people are great leaders and could operate a business, company or organisation better than those who do! But have they ever built & led a successful company in the same industry?
And maybe people are the best experts based on their acquired knowledge from years of study and attended courses! But have they ever tested their abilities in any practical, fast-paced & high-stake environment, or is theoretical advising from the sidelines with no consequences to face always more convenient?
Please transfer those examples to specific areas of (self)leadership!
Current situation
Nowadays, many (social media)entrepreneurs & (self-declared)thought-leaders who openly display signs of "Illusionary Superiority" and "The Dunning-Kruger Effect" are obviously given a too-prominent public stage to shout out their messages while spreading unsolicited advice and masterful suggestions on literally everything & anything.
And additionally, in modern corporate environments & workplaces, those cognitive biases also too often lead to ineffective leadership because of leaders' enormous confidence & capability gap, with severe consequences for everybody involved.
So getting real about objectively existing leadership capabilities & potential is imperative when it comes to measurable results, profit, added value, outcome, conclusion, effect, consequence, solution, output and so on because, in the end, that's what business is about!
A much-needed change
As a courageous but necessary first step for a much-needed change, let's get real that even & especially people in designated leadership positions don't know the answer if they haven't taken the "test" of being capable of successfully delivering because we hope that they are natural leaders.
Evidently, a designated position of leadership can't only be based on a wealth of attained diplomas, courses or education stated by a piece of paper of some kind, as knowledge & opinion alone means nothing, as the everyday leadership reality in corporate & entrepreneurial environments shows.
Because in any real-life scenario, only those leaders who have taken the "test" truly know the answer and can act accordingly.
To do this well, they must assess & develop the right things!
And having a professional by their side with a background based on theoretical, academic knowledge and first hand-experience, who also has a proven track of having taken the "test" as a display of his expertise.
Lars Friedrich, Executive Contributor Brainz Magazine
Lars Friedrich is an expert in personal & professional leadership transformations refined with a touch of Zen. As a former Officer & Special Forces Operator, executive in international & intercultural corporate positions and founder of his boutique business, he has vast accumulated experience, expertise & knowledge in leadership, resilience, endurance, commitment, persistence & dedication. Furthermore, Lars Friedrich trained in traditional Japanese Martial Arts for 42 years and frequently travels to Japan for his ongoing tuition, which amplifies his experience. With family ties & homes in Australia, Finland & Germany, he is proudly serving & guiding male & female leaders via shared knowledge & passion.
Sources:
Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0001691881900056
Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1999-15054-002
